California is a large and prosperous place – but its geographic and demographic diversity is so vast that its prosperity isn’t evenly distributed. A 2025 report from the Public Policy Institute of California showed that average incomes in urban coastal regions could be double that of central rural ones, and that different regions had different kinds of job opportunities. Job growth in places like the Inland Empire and Central Valley was higher, but those jobs tended to come from “middle-and-low-wage sectors,” rather than high paying, upwardly mobile jobs.
A new partnership between the College Futures Foundation and California Competes is showing that the same dynamic applies to higher education. A college degree is a worthwhile investment everywhere in California, and at least 70% of bachelor’s degrees pay off in more money and better career opportunities.
“(T)he evidence still shows that education remains one of the most powerful vehicles for economic mobility we have,” College Futures Foundation Director of Program & Strategy, Amanda DeLaRosa, recently wrote.
But just how many opportunities someone gets from a college degree depends on who they are and where in California they live.
The report prepared from College Futures Foundation and California Competes, “Degrees of Value”, show that there are “regional disparities in positive ROI across race and ethnicity, gender and credential type.”
DeLaRosa writes:
Graduates in coastal economic hubs – the Bay Area, Orange County, Los Angeles and San Diego – are more likely to experience strong economic returns than those in the Inland Empire or in more rural regions. This is unacceptable. It exposes the deep fissures of entrenched classism and faultlines of structural racism buried in and born from our education systems and labor markets. Postsecondary education is supposed to expand opportunity and unlock economic mobility. It should concern all of us to see such uneven distribution of the payoff of education.
College Futures Foundation and California Competes are committed to asking hard questions of the higher education system, including “questions about alignment between what learners pursue, what regions need, and whether those pathways lead to living-wage jobs and real opportunity.” This is vital work, and the state higher education system needs to answer these questions and deliver better results.
They should do it for Californians accessing higher education at any point in life. But there’s another reason they need to be addressing these issues of equitability and results: self-interest. Many colleges that don’t address these problems won’t survive.
Changing Populations Change Education
A recent article in The Atlantic pointed out that America has passed a “demographic cliff” and it has consequences for higher education. “The number of teenagers graduating from American high schools peaked last year. It will begin declining this spring and keep falling steadily through at least 2041,” the article noted.
This means fewer traditional age students – those typically 18-19 – to enroll in traditional college. It could lead, as the article’s headline states, to a “College-Enrollment Death Spiral,” where colleges that depend on increasing enrollment to pay for programs will instead have an ever decreasing population of traditional students available.
“The United States currently has about 4,000 colleges,” author Jeffrey Selingo wrote. “According to a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, about 60 are closing on average each year; that number could double in any given year if the bottom falls out of enrollment.”
Since “roughly half of students at four-year colleges still attend one within 50 miles of home,” if a significant number of colleges close “students who otherwise would have gone to college find themselves with no viable option in the place where they live.”
Traditional colleges will never disappear – they’re simply too valuable, and some of the experiences they offer cannot be effectively replicated in other ways. Colleges with high endowments, so-called “elite” institutions that primarily serve the already successful, will likely be fine. But many of the colleges that serve everyone else – millions more people – will have to adapt, and many could close.
That will hurt the populations they serve, and the economy as a whole.
Having a local college, especially a public college, creates economic benefits for the whole community. When colleges close, those economic benefits disappear too. It’s not just jobs, though: The educational opportunities they provide vanish, and often aren’t replaceable.
Going to a local college can be challenging enough for many people. Commuting to a different city, or moving, is even harder. Some rural communities already lack a sufficient number of colleges to support their populations. Many rural college age students – more than half a million – already struggle to go to college in part because there are simply no colleges near them. A 2025 study by UCLA and the University of Arizona shows that many college recruiters don’t even bother to visit rural areas.
As the number of traditional college age students shrinks, colleges will need to learn how to attract, support, and retain the more populations of people – especially working adults – who still want the advantages of a college education. These colleges need to adapt, for their own sake and the population they serve.
That means doing what College Futures Foundation and California Competes are calling for: Finding ways to make their degrees clearly valuable to everyone, regardless of age, race, wherever they live.
It also means doing the work Calbright has piloted and has proven works: Making career focused higher education accessible to everyone.
Higher Education Has To Be Accessible To Be Effective
Calbright is California’s only statewide, exclusively online, competency-based, community college district. It was founded by the California Legislature specifically to find ways to make college accessible and beneficial to the millions of adult Californians ages 25-54 who would attend college if they could, but find that the traditional system isn’t built for their family, work, and life responsibilities. It’s also intended to serve the millions more working-age adults looking to upskill and reskill in a rapidly changing labor market.
In other words, Calbright is already finding ways to attract, retain, and support adult populations – the kind of students every college is going to need to better reach if they’re going to be future-proof, and continue to provide community and economic benefits.
Now in its seventh fully operating year for students, Calbright’s results are overwhelmingly positive:
- Calbright is more diverse than traditional colleges. It has students in 57 of California’s 58 counties, and 92% of its students are 25 or over.
- 24% of students are parents or caregivers
- 73% of students identify as identify as members of Black, Indigenous, Asian and other communities of color
- 51% of students are female
- Calbright has a measurable positive impact on students who complete its programs.
- More than 80% of Calbright completers are employed a year after graduation.
- The median Calbright graduate makes over $8,000 more annually than they did before enrolling – roughly the amount of a health care premium.
- Completion rates rose 36% from 2023 to 2024, and 83% of those students finished in a year.
- Calbright’s enrollment is increasing at a time when most colleges are seeing shrinking enrollment.
- The College experienced a 66% enrollment increase in 2025 alone, reaching more than 7,000 students.
- Demand for Calbright’s programs is expected to continue as economic uncertainty increases demand for flexible reskilling.
- Student surveys show demand is driven by adult learners finding a higher education path that works for them: 70% of students say Calbright is helping them make progress toward their educational and career goals.
Calbright is reaching more people, more kinds of people, and delivering clear benefits. Exactly what local colleges need to learn to do in order to both survive and support Californians – goals that are explicitly outlined in the California Community College’s Vision 2030 plan, and Governor Newsom’s State Master Plan for Career Education.
Working together, the state of California, California Competes, Calbright, and College Futures Foundation, can help colleges across California better serve students, and especially attract adult learners as they make transitions in work and life. This is the work that is essential for California’s higher education system, and California’s economy to thrive.
